By Christine Kern, contributing writer
The National Retail Federation has issued a revised retail sales forecast for 2015, lowering its anticipated figures due to unexpected slow growth during the first half of the year. This pattern echoes the industry’s experience in 2014. NRF experts also predict that sales will steadily increase through the remainder of the year. The original NRF forecast in February predicted a 4.1 percent growth in retail sales over 2014, but the new revision lowers the forecast to 3.5 percent.
A U.S. Department of Commerce report on June sales noted that sales were down. Excluding autos, gas, building materials and restaurants, core retail sales fell 0.1 percent in June after an increase of 0.7 percent in May. The report precipitated the NRF revision.
NRF calculations found that sales during the first six months of 2015 saw 2.9 percent growth, with an anticipated increase at a more positive pace of 3.7 percent over the next five months.
“For years consumer spending has been hampered by lackluster growth in our economy. Much of that blame can be shifted to Washington where too much time has been spent crafting rules and regulations that almost guarantee negative consequences for consumers and American businesses alike,” explained NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay.
“Until the government and our elected leaders get serious about enacting policies that lift consumer confidence, create economic growth and spur investment, we will continue this trend of solid, but not exceptional, performance in the economy,” said Shay.
CNBC reported that the average back-to-school spending is anticipated to be $630 this year, down from $669 last year.
“Despite all of these hurdles, we are optimistic that consumer spending during the second half of the year will benefit from recent improvements in the housing and labor markets along with lower energy costs, and believe consumer confidence will grow enough to bolster retail purchases for the year,” said Shay.
“A confluence of events, including treacherous weather throughout the United States through most of the winter, issues at the West Coast ports, a stronger U.S. dollar, weak foreign growth and declines in energy sector investments all significantly and negatively impacted retail sales so far this year, and thus have changed how future sales will shape up for the rest of 2015,” said NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz. He explained that household spending patterns have moved away from goods, towards services in what might be a transitory trend. Furthermore, he explained, a deflationary retail environment has been especially challenging for retailers’ bottom lines.”
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